Ukraine crisis, a double edged-sword for Macron

Hello, it’s lunchtime in Paris and Emmanuel Macron has a guest, his prime minister Jean Castex.

What happened yesterday? Far-right candidate Marine Le Pen (le Rassemblement National) suspended her campaign to fully focus on her quest for the sponsors needed to officially appear on the ballot.

Why does it matter? It is difficult to say whether this dramatization is staged or if it reveals a real concern. Marine Le Pen has indeed often defended a conspiracy theory aimed at preventing her from being a presidential candidate, even though she has been a candidate twice before. There are still ten days to obtain the necessary signatures. Usually, many sponsors come forward in the last few days.

Emmanuel Macron’s term had already been punctuated by the Yellow Jacket protests in 2018 and Covid in 2020. Now he has to deal with a major European crisis. The French president found himself nevertheless under fire from the opposition on Tuesday. The day after Vladimir Putin announced a Russian deployment in the separatist entities of eastern Ukraine, Marine Le Pen accused him of « having tried to use this diplomatic episode to back up his campaign entry. » She specifically mentioned a photo posted on Instagram by his official photographer showing him in what could be his office, looking concerned and unshaved.

Leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon (La France Insoumise) mocked his « appalling record. » « He played roles with no real content. It is useless to hope that he will do better. He can do worse, » he said. « Was he a decoy for Putin? » he added, suggesting that the Russian president had played him like a fiddle.

Conservative Valérie Pécresse (Les Républicains) was more lenient. « One cannot blame the President of the Republic for having tried to dialogue with Putin, but this dialogue was too late and solitary, » she said, despite Emmanuel Macron’s constant coordination with his Western peers.

As often, the other far-right candidate, Eric Zemmour, was by far the most ruthless. « The problem is that Emmanuel Macron is not credible and is not respected by Vladimir Putin », he said. The former polemicist who advocated, in 2020, in favor of an alliance with Russia, then labeled « the most reliable » compared to Nato, quoted the Russian president’s spokesman. « He said when Emmanuel Macron came to Moscow and flew back, that he came to seek an agreement but this agreement was impossible since he is a member of two organizations, the European Union and Nato, of which he is not the boss, » added Eric Zemmour.

All of his critics have also been quick to point out the failure of Emmanuel Macron’s foreign affairs initiatives in Lebanon, Iran, or Libya. Still, it remains to be seen whether his last mediation attempt could influence the campaign as international issues traditionally play a minor role in voters’ motivations.

The rally ’round the flag effect, which occurs during major crises, could help him in the few weeks remaining before the first round of the election, on April 10. Despite the ongoing critics heard during the pandemic, many surveys showed that a large majority of potential voters believed that none of Emmanuel Macron’s opponents could have handled it better. His approval ratings remain much higher than his predecessors,’ Conservative Nicolas Sarkozy and Socialist François Hollande. The former was not re-elected in 2012 and the latter didn’t dare to run for re-election in 2017.

His active yet fruitless diplomacy move can only strengthen two of his assets. A poll published by Le Monde earlier this month, asking voters which candidate has the broadest range of presidential material and who best represents their country abroad, shows Macron ahead of his opponents by wide margins.

His most vocal critics perform very poorly on these two issues. When 60% of the survey’s potential voters say that Emmanuel Macron has the makings of a president, only 23% think the same of Eric Zemmour (21% for Jean-Luc Mélenchon). Marine Le Pen is doing a little better, with 35%. Similarly, 57% say that the outgoing president is a good ambassador for France, compared to 18% for Eric Zemmour, 16% for Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and 25% for Marine Le Pen. They have very little time left to improve their situation.

Quote of the day

« It is the French who will pay the bill »

Jordan Bardella, the interim leader of le Rassemblement National, opposed the new European sanctions targeting Russia. « I think these sanctions are counterproductive because it is French exporting companies that will pay the bill. You know that the sanctions applied against Russia, for several years now, have led to a decline in our agricultural exports to Russia of nearly 14% at the European level, » he said. « And, above all, it is the French who will pay the bill, since economic sanctions on Russia will induce retaliation on gas exports. » « These retaliations will apply directly on the gas bill of the French and therefore will lead to a decline in their purchasing power, » he added. On the contrary, finance minister Bruno Le Maire said that the « impact will be limited. »

Graphic of the day

Countdown

46 Days until the presidential election’s first round

60 Days until the presidential election’s second round

Thanks for reading, see you tomorrow.

Le Monde