Hello, it’s lunchtime in Paris and center-left candidate Christiane Taubira announced her withdrawal from the presidential election. The last to enter the race after being crowned in January by an unofficial primary, she failed to gather enough potential voters behind her. While she has lost the backing of her party, she has not been able to obtain the 500 sponsorships of elected officials necessary to run for president.
What happened yesterday? Three more candidates obtained the 500 sponsorships needed to run for president: far-right candidates Marine Le Pen (Le Rassemblement National), Eric Zemmour (Reconquête !) and sovereignist Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (Debout La France).
Why does it matter? With the exception of center-left Christiane Taubira, a former justice minister, all the main candidates reached the threshold of 500 sponsors before the deadline, March 4.
The attack came from the conservative wing in the form of a warning. A conservative senator explained, on Tuesday, that « a campaign without debate, a campaign that would be skipped » would lead to « an elected official without a mandate. » The president of the Senate, also a Conservative, doubled down by saying a shorter campaign would cause « a risk of crises of legitimacy. » The critics were aimed at Emmanuel Macron and at his late entrance into the presidential race, which could happen at any time now (the deadline for the publication of the official list of candidates is Friday afternoon.)
The Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has been dominating headlines since it began last week, does indeed set aside some elements of an ordinary campaign. It’s probably not an appropriate time to talk about inheritance tax. But it is difficult not to see that the war at the gates of Europe constitutes a formidable challenge for the candidates, declared or not.
Its consequences will have an enduring and broad effect. When Hungarian Viktor Orban accepts refugees, or when a German Green minister suggests that the last nuclear power plants will have to operate longer in order to be less dependent on Russian gas, it’s definitively because the ground is shifting. When the German chancellor also praises before his parliament the new military cooperation with France on ambitious projects such as armored tanks and fighter planes, the concept of military sovereignty may be about to be updated.
The speed with which European members unanimously agreed on new sanctions against Russia is also a historic breakthrough that makes the candidates’ programs look old. The Eurosceptics (leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon and far-right candidates Marine Le Pen and Eric Zemmour) still oppose further European integration, while the reality demands a stronger Europe. They also continue to plead for the exit of France from NATO, or its integrated command, denouncing American imperialism when, at the same time, a nuclear power invades a European sovereign state. Others require the EU’s 3% budget deficit rule to be dropped when it could also become collateral damage of the war.
All these issues have become very topical. Who could protect us the best, who is our true ally, with whom are we sharing values? Some people believe the war in Ukraine might stifle the electoral campaign. On the contrary, it takes all its meaning. It brings issues of life and death to the forefront and the voters will give their opinion during the two rounds of the presidential election, in April.
The shadow of war might push reluctant voters to the polls. Some of them might give different answers than they would have given a month or two ago given what has happened in the meantime. They will vote with images of the bombing of Ukrainian cities and the distress of hundreds of thousands of refugees in Poland or Romania in mind.
The center-left and the center-right are in a better position today than those who denounced a European Union that was both fussy and impotent. Emmanuel Macron might regret to have said that NATO was « brain dead » two years ago while it has been invigorated by Vladimir Putin’s aggression. Still, he is one step ahead of his opponents because he has been advocated « European sovereignty » for years, particularly in the area of defense.
In one week and despite all appearances, the campaign has changed in depth. It has also become existential, but not at all in the sense given by far-right candidate Eric Zemmour whose provocative slogans are more than ever irrelevant.
Graphic of the day
Quote of the day
« The Vladimir Putin of 5 years ago is not exactly the one of today »
Marine Le Pen tried to distance herself from the visit she paid to the Russian president just one month before the 2017 presidential election. « The Vladimir Putin of 5 years ago is not exactly the one of today, » she said before adding that she would not make this trip again if the opportunity arose « currently. » The meeting with the Russian president continues to haunt her as a photo of the two leaders appears on a campaign leaflet distributed to hundreds of thousands of copies.
Countdown
39 Days until the presidential election’s first round
53 Days until the presidential election’s second round
Thanks for reading, see you tomorrow.
L’article French presidential debate is underway est apparu en premier sur zimo news.
